(no subject)
Oct. 28th, 2003 07:17 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ewtFrom ![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
incognita747, some worth-checking-out .
One of the most powerful solar flares in years, an X17-category
explosion, erupted from giant sunspot 486 this morning at approximately 11:10 UT
this morning, Oct 28th (about 6am Cincinnati time).
For a website which talks a bit about it (meant for the public) and
with pictures of the event, go here:
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Type II: 1250 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky
Velocity: 2125 km/sec
ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCKAT EARTH
Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 29
October to 21:00 UTC on 29 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 08:00 UTC, 29 October 2003 (3 am EST on 29 October)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 9
Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact
At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn: SOUTHWARD
IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS
The preferred time of arrival is ***TONIGHT***, TUESDAY NIGHT
(before you go to bed that night) near or after 3 am Eastern Standard
Time).
That's 2 am Central Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's 1 am Mountain Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's MIDNIGHT Pacific Standard Time on TONIGHT.
EXPECT RESIDUAL ACTIVITY (LESS INTENSE) TOMMORROW NIGHT
(WEDNESDAY, 29 OCT) AS WELL !
EVENT #49 NOTES:
This is the most energetic Earthward-directed event of the solar
cycle. SEVERE to MAJOR geomagnetic storming is expected to abruptly
commence following the arrival of the shock front from this flare.
This flare was associated with a Ground-Level Event. It was also associated with very high energy protons at greater than 100 MeV (which are still climbing, over 5 hours after the event began). A magnetic crochet was observed over the daylit sections of the ionosphere. An exceptionally intense shortwave fadeout and polar cap absorption event are in progress. There are reports this event was observed in white-light. Intense radio bursts were associated with this event across the spectrum. The type II shock velocity is not representative of the observed velocity of this CME.
The observed velocity as determined by SOHO was 2125 km/sec.
This event has the potential to produce the strongest geomagnetic storm since 1989. Auroral activity could become visible into the deep low latitude regions. This one is worth driving a good long distance over to find clear skies. It has better potential to produce low-latitude aurora
than almost any other event observed in the past decade. Keep in mind that it is also possible the disturbance may not be nearly as geoeffective as many would like. It all depends on the character of the magnetic fields imbedded within the coronal mass ejection. However, we believe it will either be very large, or only modestly large in terms of its capacity to produce disturbed geomagnetic and auroral activity. We do not expect this disturbance to be small.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.
I wish I lived on the prairies again.
incognita747, some worth-checking-out .One of the most powerful solar flares in years, an X17-category
explosion, erupted from giant sunspot 486 this morning at approximately 11:10 UT
this morning, Oct 28th (about 6am Cincinnati time).
For a website which talks a bit about it (meant for the public) and
with pictures of the event, go here:
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Type II: 1250 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky
Velocity: 2125 km/sec
ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCKAT EARTH
Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 29
October to 21:00 UTC on 29 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 08:00 UTC, 29 October 2003 (3 am EST on 29 October)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 9
Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact
At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn: SOUTHWARD
IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS
The preferred time of arrival is ***TONIGHT***, TUESDAY NIGHT
(before you go to bed that night) near or after 3 am Eastern Standard
Time).
That's 2 am Central Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's 1 am Mountain Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's MIDNIGHT Pacific Standard Time on TONIGHT.
EXPECT RESIDUAL ACTIVITY (LESS INTENSE) TOMMORROW NIGHT
(WEDNESDAY, 29 OCT) AS WELL !
EVENT #49 NOTES:
This is the most energetic Earthward-directed event of the solar
cycle. SEVERE to MAJOR geomagnetic storming is expected to abruptly
commence following the arrival of the shock front from this flare.
This flare was associated with a Ground-Level Event. It was also associated with very high energy protons at greater than 100 MeV (which are still climbing, over 5 hours after the event began). A magnetic crochet was observed over the daylit sections of the ionosphere. An exceptionally intense shortwave fadeout and polar cap absorption event are in progress. There are reports this event was observed in white-light. Intense radio bursts were associated with this event across the spectrum. The type II shock velocity is not representative of the observed velocity of this CME.
The observed velocity as determined by SOHO was 2125 km/sec.
This event has the potential to produce the strongest geomagnetic storm since 1989. Auroral activity could become visible into the deep low latitude regions. This one is worth driving a good long distance over to find clear skies. It has better potential to produce low-latitude aurora
than almost any other event observed in the past decade. Keep in mind that it is also possible the disturbance may not be nearly as geoeffective as many would like. It all depends on the character of the magnetic fields imbedded within the coronal mass ejection. However, we believe it will either be very large, or only modestly large in terms of its capacity to produce disturbed geomagnetic and auroral activity. We do not expect this disturbance to be small.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.
I wish I lived on the prairies again.
