Note: the chickens were dying, you'd only need to worry if the chickens became ill.
The bigger issue is that *if* this has become human transmissible and hits an Asian city, it's going to spread, and fast, that's the one that scares me. How widespread was this human transmissible strain?
How widespread was this human transmissible strain?
You have as much information about that as I have. From what I can tell, not terribly widespread at all, yet. But yes, I am far more concerned about human-transmissible strains than about strains that are only transmissible from birds to people. If the post had not contained information about the virus possibly being passed from person to person I wouldn't have linked to it.
(Incidentally, I think the problem with looking after chickens is that since the incubation period in humans seems to be 3-5 days for this strain, by the time the chickens start dying you're kindof stuck. If bird 'flu became very widespread in the UK, I might not want to look after the chicken lady's birds.)
The Metro this morning has a scare-tactics-journalism article citing someone saying that they reckon the upcoming flu epidemic may kill (*checks*) 150m people.
... of course, I also distinctly remember them saying that when it first cropped up too.
The Singaporean Flu? one that my mum lived through was rather more recent than that. I think there was another one since then too - but still not unlikely, yes.
Are the chickens inside or outside? Our government (England) hasn't told people to keep them locked inside but other countries in Europe have. The RSPB are keeping an eye on migrating birds for any that are ill. So far so good, was the last report I heard on the news a couple of nights ago. Not sure if that is any help. Take care.
I don't care about the birds, I'm more concerned about the human -> airport -> world travel systems -> world scenario, frankly. Given the options of using the tube daily versus looking after some chickens, I'd know where i'd stake my chances. And it wouldn't be the unfeathered companions. (Fortunately I usually walk over the river, it's 20 minutes but only takes fractionally longer than the tube!)
Yes indeed, I am not happy about passing through Waterloo daily, and I intend to stay out of mass transport as soon as there are cases in the EU, and out of London if it gets any closer than that. I vary between optimism and pessimism about whether the government will take appropriate action in response to an emerging pandemic (ie, close all ports of entry). I think it would be their instinct, but the Guardian would call it fascism, and everyone would be like, NO2BARBEDWIREBRITAIN and IBELIEVEINTHEBBC until they started coughing so...
Well, they started to go in the direction of closing all ports of entry around the SARS outbreak. Sure there will be complaints, but if the restriction was reasonable and posted with a sunset clause straight off and the government did a good PR on it, the reaction of most people might be reasonable. Or at least I'd like to think so...
Well, some people seem determined to explain why the government is necessarily wrong, whatever decision it makes. I don't know, I just had a meeting with the man in charge of bird flu, I should have asked, but it was a meeting about foot and mouth...
What's scary is that there are herbal anti-virals that work well against 'flu and others (though I've not heard about anyone taking them for avian 'flu), just like you can kill and treat MRSA with herbal remedies (MRSA can be killed with tea tree oil, but a nurse who used it (successfully) to clean her previously MRSA-infected ward was reprimanded for using a non-standard procedure, even though it clearly worked), but no one in the medical profession wants to know. It's both scary and distressing, especially considering the lack of evidence that many orthodox treatments work/are safe (amalgam fillings are declared safe because no one has yet proven them unsafe, not because they have been proven to be safe).
Sorry, this is turning into a bit of a rant. What i meant to say is that I'm not too worried about myself as I am fairly confident that there is something that can be done about it, I'm just very frustrated that no one will investigate the promising alternatives!
You can't patent a herbal remedy, so there isn't any money in doing the necessary research. There are also a lot of quacks about that claim 'natural' remedies to be able to do things that they cannot, so people tend not to trust them as much. This is sad, but it is the way the world works.
Even with the best of modern drugs and herbal medicine, at pandemic levels an awful lot of people would die.
What can you do?
Make sure you and yours are relatively safe - that is, protect your health as best you can. Get enough rest so you're not as prone to infection in the first place. Keep some remedies on hand.
Let other people know what might work for life-and-death situations. You could do this through a well-referenced LJ post or webpage; it's important to have it well-referenced if you don't want people to just write it off as flaky quackishness, though.
Even with the best of modern drugs and herbal medicine, at pandemic levels an awful lot of people would die.
This is true of course, and thoroughly depressing. I just get very annoyed that so many people seem to either ignore situations like this ("it's not happening to me or anyone I know, so I don't care about it") or try to make money out of it ("they need medical help, therefore they will pay through the nose for it").
I'm sure that fewer people would die if everyone actually pulled together for once and helped each other out, instead of just trying to make money by selling their particular drug. It's just like the generic drugs that the US pharmaceuticals are trying to put an end to and won't allow the WHO to use, thus many people in developing worlds who really need them can't afford them. I think it's disgusting. Sorry, I'm ranting again. :(
MRSA can be killed with tea tree oil, but a nurse who used it (successfully) to clean her previously MRSA-infected ward was reprimanded for using a non-standard procedure, even though it clearly worked
I name and shame you as a Daily Mail reader ("How tea tree oil can wipe out the hospital superbug". Daily Mail, 11 May 2004). It's not really fair to say no one will investigate the promising alternatives - this issue was investigated by the Department of Microbiology and Communicable Disease, (Royal Hampshire County Hospital), and tea tree oil based products were found 41% effective against MRSA, as against 49% effectiveness for standard procedures, and further trials are ongoing.
I didn't know it was in the Daily Mail. I've never actually read that paper (I don't generally read any newspapers) but it was in the British Medical Journal some time ago. It pointed out that they only investigated "tea tree oil based products" and not pure tea tree oil, which was what was used. There is a huge difference between the two and between different brands of the oil.
Perhaps I should have said "no one will investigate the promising alternatives properly" rather than implying "at all". So far I have yet to see a clinical trial of herbal medicine testing it in a suitable way. For example, the tests of the effectiveness of St John's Wort against major depression didn't take in to account that St John's Wort is prescribed for mild depression, not major. Too many of the trials are funded or undertaken by pharmaceuticals who have (obviously) a conflict of interest.
If we get a strain that looks like it's spreading, and we start getting cases in the EU, and it has a fair chance of being fatal to an otherwise-healthy adult, my plan is to go out as little as possible (stockpiling lots of food, telecommuting to work if I can) until the outbreak ends or until an effective vaccine becomes available. Since taking public transport in the rush hour seems to be an ideal way to get yourself exposed to everyone else's germs, I'm actually pretty amazed I haven't even caught a cold so far (although I suppose it's not winter yet).
This was my plan until the meeting I just had, when I realised that in the event of a major outbreak (or at least a major bird-based outbreak) I'm likely to need to be in the office pretty much ALL THE TIME. On the other hand that might give me cause to be in the front of the queue for vaccines and treatment.
There was a thing in the news the other day that increased vigilance in personal hygiene can minimise the risk of colds and flu, even bird flu - wash your hands with soap and hot water for at least 40 seconds after travelling, touching money, teaching, etc. etc.
It seems ridiculous to have to tell people this, but personal hygiene is really bad in the East, and even here, when I went for an ultrasound and went to the bathroom afterwards, there was another lady in there that didn't want to wait until I'd finished washing my hands!
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 07:23 am (UTC)Are you going to carry on bird-sitting for the Chicken Lady?
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 07:39 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 07:43 am (UTC)The bigger issue is that *if* this has become human transmissible and hits an Asian city, it's going to spread, and fast, that's the one that scares me. How widespread was this human transmissible strain?
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 08:07 am (UTC)You have as much information about that as I have. From what I can tell, not terribly widespread at all, yet. But yes, I am far more concerned about human-transmissible strains than about strains that are only transmissible from birds to people. If the post had not contained information about the virus possibly being passed from person to person I wouldn't have linked to it.
(Incidentally, I think the problem with looking after chickens is that since the incubation period in humans seems to be 3-5 days for this strain, by the time the chickens start dying you're kindof stuck. If bird 'flu became very widespread in the UK, I might not want to look after the chicken lady's birds.)
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 08:19 am (UTC)... of course, I also distinctly remember them saying that when it first cropped up too.
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 08:24 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 08:39 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 09:06 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 09:22 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 09:02 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 08:34 am (UTC)They were right then as well, it just hasn't happened yet.
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 06:03 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 07:50 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 08:39 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 09:07 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 09:13 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 12:15 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 02:39 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 09:07 am (UTC)Sorry, this is turning into a bit of a rant. What i meant to say is that I'm not too worried about myself as I am fairly confident that there is something that can be done about it, I'm just very frustrated that no one will investigate the promising alternatives!
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 09:18 am (UTC)Even with the best of modern drugs and herbal medicine, at pandemic levels an awful lot of people would die.
What can you do?
Make sure you and yours are relatively safe - that is, protect your health as best you can. Get enough rest so you're not as prone to infection in the first place. Keep some remedies on hand.
Let other people know what might work for life-and-death situations. You could do this through a well-referenced LJ post or webpage; it's important to have it well-referenced if you don't want people to just write it off as flaky quackishness, though.
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 02:23 pm (UTC)This is true of course, and thoroughly depressing. I just get very annoyed that so many people seem to either ignore situations like this ("it's not happening to me or anyone I know, so I don't care about it") or try to make money out of it ("they need medical help, therefore they will pay through the nose for it").
I'm sure that fewer people would die if everyone actually pulled together for once and helped each other out, instead of just trying to make money by selling their particular drug. It's just like the generic drugs that the US pharmaceuticals are trying to put an end to and won't allow the WHO to use, thus many people in developing worlds who really need them can't afford them. I think it's disgusting. Sorry, I'm ranting again. :(
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 09:20 am (UTC)I name and shame you as a Daily Mail reader ("How tea tree oil can wipe out the hospital superbug". Daily Mail, 11 May 2004). It's not really fair to say no one will investigate the promising alternatives - this issue was investigated by the Department of Microbiology and Communicable Disease, (Royal Hampshire County Hospital), and tea tree oil based products were found 41% effective against MRSA, as against 49% effectiveness for standard procedures, and further trials are ongoing.
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 02:18 pm (UTC)Perhaps I should have said "no one will investigate the promising alternatives properly" rather than implying "at all". So far I have yet to see a clinical trial of herbal medicine testing it in a suitable way. For example, the tests of the effectiveness of St John's Wort against major depression didn't take in to account that St John's Wort is prescribed for mild depression, not major. Too many of the trials are funded or undertaken by pharmaceuticals who have (obviously) a conflict of interest.
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 10:47 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 10:56 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 06:04 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 01:16 pm (UTC)If we get a strain that looks like it's spreading, and we start getting cases in the EU, and it has a fair chance of being fatal to an otherwise-healthy adult, my plan is to go out as little as possible (stockpiling lots of food, telecommuting to work if I can) until the outbreak ends or until an effective vaccine becomes available. Since taking public transport in the rush hour seems to be an ideal way to get yourself exposed to everyone else's germs, I'm actually pretty amazed I haven't even caught a cold so far (although I suppose it's not winter yet).
no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 02:46 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-09-30 06:02 pm (UTC)http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/healthnews.php?newsid=31280
It seems ridiculous to have to tell people this, but personal hygiene is really bad in the East, and even here, when I went for an ultrasound and went to the bathroom afterwards, there was another lady in there that didn't want to wait until I'd finished washing my hands!